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"В частности, хотя мы и ожидаем некоторого ускорения структурных темпов роста (ближе к 1,5-2% в год) вследствие увеличения инвестиционной активности предприятий и снижения неопределенности в экономике, продолжается сокращение численности экономически активного населения, а темпы роста совокупной факторной производительности без проведения серьезных структурных реформ остаются ниже, чем были в 2000-х годах", - пояснили составители отчета.
Как полагают эксперты, хотя экономика вышла из циклического спада, а мировые цены на нефть пошли вверх, ускорения роста ждать не стоит без преодоления пяти ключевых рисков. Риски и ограничения переходят из года в год и препятствуют ускорению роста российской экономики.
Первым из них является ситуация на рынке труда. Из-за падения курса рубля и роста инфляции в период кризиса доля зарплат в ВВП снижалась, однако сейчас ситуация стабилизировалась. Предприниматели больше не могут использовать этот позитивный эффект и экономить на зарплатах, направляя средства на инвестиции. В результате себестоимость продукции вновь начала расти.
Второй проблемой эксперты назвали рост инвестиций. По данным Росстата за первые девять месяцев 2017 года, инвестиции в российскую экономику выросли на 4,2% по сравнению с аналогичными показателями 2016 года, однако этот процесс сопровождается признаками, которые свидетельствуют о том, что инвестиции не растут, а падают. Сокращаются корпоративные прибыли в ВВП, компании вновь перешли к накоплению средств на банковских счетах вместо того, чтобы их инвестировать.
Третье ограничение, по мнению авторов мониторинга, - неопределенность по поводу экономической политики нового правительства после президентских выборов. Кроме того, неопределенной является ситуация и с введением новых антироссийских санкций.
Четвертым названо "усиление конкуренции на мировых рынках сырьевых товаров", причем не только нефти и газа, мешающее увеличивать экспорт даже при росте цен на сырье.
Пятое ограничение - исчерпание потенциала по увеличению экспорта сельскохозяйственной продукции. Экспорт сельхозпродукции после 2014 года стал важным фактором роста экономики. Однако количество новых инвестиционных проектов из-за кризиса сократилось, а рост урожайности замедляется без новых технологий.
Нынешний прогноз РАНХиГС и Института Гайдара (не более 2% роста в год в инерционном сценарии, который не предусматривает резкого ухудшения внешних условий) оказался позитивнее прошлых ожиданий экономистов, отмечает РБК. Еще в июле прошлого года они предсказывали, что потенциал роста в ближайшие годы ограничен 1,5%.
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ВВП России пока не способен расти быстрее 1,5-2% в год: тормозом служат по меньшей мере пять факторов, пишут эксперты РАНХиГС и Института Гайдара в выпуске "Мониторинга экономической ситуации в России: тенденции и вызовы социально-экономического развития" за февраль 2018 года. Основным вопросом для экономики они полагают формирование нового правительства, сообщает РБК.
"В частности, хотя мы и ожидаем некоторого ускорения структурных темпов роста (ближе к 1,5-2% в год) вследствие увеличения инвестиционной активности предприятий и снижения неопределенности в экономике, продолжается сокращение численности экономически активного населения, а темпы роста совокупной факторной производительности без проведения серьезных структурных реформ остаются ниже, чем были в 2000-х годах", - пояснили составители отчета.
Как полагают эксперты, хотя экономика вышла из циклического спада, а мировые цены на нефть пошли вверх, ускорения роста ждать не стоит без преодоления пяти ключевых рисков. Риски и ограничения переходят из года в год и препятствуют ускорению роста российской экономики.
Первым из них является ситуация на рынке труда. Из-за падения курса рубля и роста инфляции в период кризиса доля зарплат в ВВП снижалась, однако сейчас ситуация стабилизировалась. Предприниматели больше не могут использовать этот позитивный эффект и экономить на зарплатах, направляя средства на инвестиции. В результате себестоимость продукции вновь начала расти.
Второй проблемой эксперты назвали рост инвестиций. По данным Росстата за первые девять месяцев 2017 года, инвестиции в российскую экономику выросли на 4,2% по сравнению с аналогичными показателями 2016 года, однако этот процесс сопровождается признаками, которые свидетельствуют о том, что инвестиции не растут, а падают. Сокращаются корпоративные прибыли в ВВП, компании вновь перешли к накоплению средств на банковских счетах вместо того, чтобы их инвестировать.
Третье ограничение, по мнению авторов мониторинга, - неопределенность по поводу экономической политики нового правительства после президентских выборов. Кроме того, неопределенной является ситуация и с введением новых антироссийских санкций.
Четвертым названо "усиление конкуренции на мировых рынках сырьевых товаров", причем не только нефти и газа, мешающее увеличивать экспорт даже при росте цен на сырье.
Пятое ограничение - исчерпание потенциала по увеличению экспорта сельскохозяйственной продукции. Экспорт сельхозпродукции после 2014 года стал важным фактором роста экономики. Однако количество новых инвестиционных проектов из-за кризиса сократилось, а рост урожайности замедляется без новых технологий.
Нынешний прогноз РАНХиГС и Института Гайдара (не более 2% роста в год в инерционном сценарии, который не предусматривает резкого ухудшения внешних условий) оказался позитивнее прошлых ожиданий экономистов, отмечает РБК. Еще в июле прошлого года они предсказывали, что потенциал роста в ближайшие годы ограничен 1,5%.
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